Macro-economy updates October 2012

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  •  The fourth session of the National Assembly term XIII opened in the morning October 22. This is the last session of the year, so together with considerations on socio-economic problems, the NA also spends a large amount of time for completing law. Government admitted, of 15 targets approved by the NA for 2012, as many as 5 important targets are difficult to complete: economic growth (was estimated at only 5.2% against the plan of 6.5%), total investment capital for social development (at only 29.5% of GDP), job creation (at more than 1.5 million workers, against the plan of 1.6 million laborers), pervert reduction (at 1.7% against target of 2%) and forest coverage rate.
  •  CPI in October 2012 rose 0.85% on month, much lower than the rise of 2.20% in September. CPI rise in October was mainly driven by the groups of medicines and health services (rose 5.94%), and education (up 1.88%). CPI in October 2012 surged 6.02% from December 2011 and soared 7% on year. Average CPI in Jan-Oct 2012 rose 9.66% on year.
  • Gold price index in October 2012 rose 4.64% on month, increased 1.96% from December 2011 and soared 1.24% on year. US dollar price index in October 2012 increased 0.06% on month, decreased 0.88% over December 2011 and declined 0.18% on year.
  • Trade deficit in October was estimated at $500 million, or 5% of the export turnover, in Jan-Oct, it was $357 million, or 0.4% of the total export turnover.
  • Total state budget revenue from early this year till October 15, 2012 was estimated  at 523.4 trillion VND, or 70.7% of the year’s estimate. Total state budget expenditure was estimated at 678.6 trillion VND, or 75.1% of the year’s estimate, of which spending on development investment was 134.4 trillion  VND, or 74.7% of the year’s estimate. State budget deficit in Jan-Oct was estimated at 155.2 trillion VND. Actualized investment capital from the state budget in  October was estimated at 22.3 trillion VND, including: central capital (5.2 trillion VND), local capital (17.1 trillion VND). Totally, in JanOct, the figure reached 164.9  trillion VND, or 79.4% of the year’s estimate and rising 8.3% on year.
  • FDI since early this year till October 20, 2012 reached $10.5 billion, or 75.3% on year. Notably, FDI in JanOct mainly focused on manufacturing and processing industry sectors with $6.9 billion, accounting for 66.2% of the total pledged capital.
  • Transactions on the interbank market were generally stable, the interest rate also remained stable, however, the transaction volume in short terms surged sharply and accounted for over 90% of the total trading volume.
  • The VND/US dollar forex rate and the foreign exchange market in month were stable when trade deficit in Jan-Oct was only $357 million, disbursed FDI capital reached $9 billion and the SBV bought over $10 billion of foreign currency for reserves. Although gold price fluctuated strongly, the SBV did not allow gold import, so there was no sudden needs for foreign currency.
  • On October 26, 2012, the SBV decided to extend time for credit institutions to settle gold accounts till June 30, 2013, instead of the old deadline of November  25, 2012. SBV issued new draft circular on mandate and mandated operations of credit institutions and branches of foreign banks to replace the Circular No 04 and 05, which are being applied. Accordingly, mandate operations will be more tightened.
  •  Standard & Poor kept Vietnam’s short and long term local and foreign currency credit rating unchanged at B and BB-, with stable outlook.
  • SBV’s governor admitted interest groups in banking operations and this is the biggest barrier in the  restructuring process of the banking system.
  • Capital divestment pressure of foreign funds has been repelled when both SAM and Dragon Capital extended by additional 3-5 years.
  • Despite downward trend of the world petroleum prices, the local gasoline price still remained high hereby gasoline A92 price was 23,650 VND/liter, 2,850 VND/liter higher than the end of 2011. With no gasoline price cut, Ministry of Finance in October decided to reduce the use of petrol price stabilization fund from 500 VND/liter to 300 VND/liter. Minister of Finance said that, excise on petrol is normal because it is nonrenewable raw materials, which needs to save.
  • Sales of iron and steel, cement and brick declined sharply due to frozen real estate market and difficult economy. Cement retail price has not increase in the last 15 months despite rising raw material prices. Cement inventory now hits  millions of tones. For steel, because input raw materials costs decreased, companies continued to adjust down selling price, but it is still not enough to stimulate demand.

(Source: Cafef)

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