Economic Report in Q3/2012

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In general, the country’s socio-economy in the first 9 months of 2012 continued to face many difficulties and challenges. Sluggish Investment activities together with decreasing exports in almost economies led to low growth. In the country, the narrowed goods consumption market has led to high inventory.

GDP increased over quarters, but lower than the growth of the same period last year

GDP in Jan-Sep 2012 was estimated to grow 4.73% on year, lower than the growth of 5.77% in the same period 2011. GDP growth in Q1/2012 was 4%, Q2 at 4.66%, Q3 at 5.35%.

Country enjoyed $34m trade surplus thanks to FDI firms

Trade deficit in Sep was estimated at $100 million, or 1% of the export turnover. In Jan-Sep, trade surplus was estimated at $34 million mainly thanks to  trade surplus of foreign-invested enterprises.

The export turnover of goods in Sep was estimated at $9.7 billion, down 5.9% on month and rising 18.2% on year. Totally, in Jan-Sep 2012, the export turnover fetched $83.8 billion, up 18.9% on year.

Group of heavy industry and mining increased from 39% to 45.9% in Jan-Sep 2012.

Import spending in Sep was estimated at $9.8 billion, down 4.5% on month and up 0.2% on year.
Totally, in Jan-Sep, the figure was $83.7 billion, up 6.6% on year.

CPI surged due to rise of medical services  and education

CPI in Sep/2012 surged 2.2% on month, marking the highest rise since early this year. CPI rise was mainly due to the impacts of groups of  medicines and medical services (+17,02%), affecting 0.94%

CPI rise, education (+10,54%), affecting 0.6%.

CPI in Sep/2012 rose 5.13% from December 2011 and soared 6.48% on year. Nin-month average CPI surged 9.96% on year.

Provinces and cities that have not increased medical service prices also received instruction to extend  the price

increase to 2013.

Gold price index in Sep/2012 rose 5.25% on month, decreased 2.56% from December/2011 and fell 7.33% on year.

The US dollar price index in Sep/2012 surged 0.06% on month; dropped 0.94% from December/2011 and rose 0.15% on
year.

Inventory decreased over the last few months of Q3

Inventory index as of September 1, 2012 of manufacturing and processing industry sector rose 20.4% on year. Although inventory still remains high, it tends to fall gradually in recent months.

In comparison with the same period last year, inventory index as of March 1 increased 34.9%, April 1 (+32.1%), May 1 (+29.4%), June 1 (+26%), July 1 (+21%) and August 1 (+20.8%).

Some sectors posted high inventory index such as plastic product production (+50.6%), cement production (+50.2%), production of iron, steel and cast iron (+40.6%) and tobacco production (+40.3%)…

Retail in Sep started to prosper

Total retail sales and services in September increased 2.3% on month and 12.8% on year. In JanSep, the figure was estimated at more than 1,713 trillion VND, rising 17.3% on year (excluding price factor, the rise was 6.7%).

Of which, trade reached nearly 1,323 trillion VND, accounting for 77.2% of the total figure and rising 16.5% on year;
hotel and restaurant contributed 201.8 trillion VND, or 11.8% and up 19.1%; services at 170.4 trillion VND, accounting for 9.9% and rising 20.3%; tourism at 18.4 trillion VND, accounting for 1.1% and up 30.9% on year…

FDI in Jan-Sep equal to only 72.1% on year

FDI since early this year till September 20, 2012 reached over $9.526 billion, equaling to 72.1% of the same period last year. Actualized FDI capital in Jan-Sep 2012 was estimated at $8.1 billion, down 1.2% on year.

FDI in Jan-Sep mainly focused on manufacturing and processing industry sectors with nearly $6.244  billion (accounting for 65.5% of the total pledged FDI capital), real estate sector at $1.806 billion (or 19%), remaining sectors at nearly $1.477 billion (or 15.5%).

In Jan-Sep, Binh Duong attracted the biggest pledged FDI capital with nearly $1.481 billion (accounting for 24.2% of the newly pledged capital) and followed by Hai Phong with $1.042 billion (accounting for 17.1%)…

Amongst 47 countries and territories investing in Vietnam, Japan continued to be the biggest foreign investor with nearly $3.723 billion (accounting for 60.9%) of the total and then Korea with $432.4 million (or 7.1%) and Hongkong with $431.8 million…

(Source: Cafef)

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