Vietnam agribusiness report Q1 2013

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Vietnam agribusiness report Q1 2013

BMI has released report on Vietnam agribusiness Q1 2013.  BMI ‘s view shows the Vietnamese government is increasing its efforts towards developing more public-private partnerships in order to encourage organic farming and sustainable farming practises, especially for more export-orientated agriculture products such as rice and coffee. As global demand for sustainably produced goods grows alongside environmental consciousness, Vietnam is likely to benefit.

Key Forecasts:

  • Milk consumption growth to 2016: 41.4% to 247,000 tonnes. Urbanisation, increased ownership of Western goods and the ongoing spread of modern, organised retail will prove supportive of strong dairy consumption growth, even if higher global dairy prices limit the growth outlook to some extent.
  • Coffee production growth to 2015 – 2016: 36.1% to 25.5mn bags. Work on replacing trees, many of which are more than 20 years old, will improve disease resistance and thus yields in the long term. Another growth driver will be export opportunities, given that Vietnam is the world’s largest exporter of robusta coffee.
  • Pork production growth to 2015 – 2016: 13.1% to 2.2mn . Consumption will outpace production, and the country will therefore remain reliant on pork imports to satisfy demand.
  • 2012 real GDP growth: 5.2% (down from 6.7% in 2011; predicted to average 6.7% over 2011-2016).
  • 2012 consumer price index: 8. 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) (lower than 18.6% in 2011; predicted to average 5.8% over 2011-2016).
  • 2012 central bank policy rate: 11.0% y-o-y (lower than 15.0% in 2011; predicted to average 8.2% over 2011-2016)

(Source: BMI, ANT Consulting)

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